Have you ever wondered how bookmakers, that is the sites and operators that offer the possibility of betting on sporting events (and not only), to establish their odds? On what basis is a team given 1.90 in one game and 3.00 in another? How exactly are these numbers identified?
Let’s try to answer you immediately. The bookies have the task of establishing the odds for each bet and modifying them if necessary, according to various criteria to be taken into account in their work. At the end of accurate calculations and reasoning , we obtain odds that can be expressed in various ways.
Here in Italy we use the European decimal form, that is the classic numbers with a comma. There are also typical English fractions and American odds, with + and – signs in front of the numbers. But back to the initial discussion: where do bookmakers start from to set odds?
What are the factors that determine the odds?
Anyone who works for a bookmaker is usually called a trader . It is the traders who physically allocate odds to events. These analysts have to take into account various things in their work: the strength and form of the teams, the injuries of the key players, the influence of the fans , the referee , the coaches , etc … It is therefore clear that traders have a job. facilitated if they are sports fans and if they stay up to date on the latest news.
In addition to all these purely technical and sporting elements, it is necessary to take into account the turnover that a match or a review can generate. For example, if Italy plays against France in an international match, it is normal that many of our compatriots will want to bet on the Azzurri, regardless of tactical or objective motivations. In that case the odds on Italy will drop, because the bookmaker cannot risk paying too much money in case of 1.
To all this we must add the fact that a bookmaker must be sure of making a profit from his business. Therefore, the odds tend to never be too favorable to bettors. Let’s take a classic soccer match as an example. The possible outcomes are basically three: 1, X and 2. If perfect equilibrium reigned, the three signs would all have to be paid out at 3.00. In this utopian case we would speak of a zero-sum game. But the book cannot afford such an offer! The three signs will therefore be lowered below the 3.00 threshold.
The pickets and the blackboard
Let’s go down a little more specifically and explain what the so-called picket (or even better, technical picket ) is in betting. Let’s start with the basics. To calculate the odds of the outcome of a football match, you can go to see the previous results of the two teams.
Let’s take a hypothetical Udinese-Bologna match. In the current championship Udinese have played at home 18 times since the beginning of the championship, obtaining 8 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats. Bologna have played away 18 times, hitting 2 wins, 4 draws and 12 defeats.
The probability of 1 is then calculated:
(matches won by Udinese at home + matches lost by Bologna away) / (matches played by Udinese at home + matches played by Bologna away)
Translating the calculation into numbers, we can write:
(8 + 12) / (18 + 18) = 0.55 = 55%
The calculation must then be repeated also for the other two signs. We thus obtain a 22% probability for a tie and a 22% for the 2. To calculate the final odds, divide 100 by the probability of each of the events.
Sign 1: 100/55 = 1.81
Sign X: 100/22 = 4.54
Sign 2: 100/22 = 4.54
Similar calculations can then be made for the form picket (based on the state of form of the teams in the last matches) and the rating picket (evaluation of all the games played). By combining these pegs and other factors, you almost get the final odds. Only the bookmaker’s profit margin, called ‘blackboard’, is missing. Is the picture a little clearer now?
